Author: Lian

It is certain now that Apple’s Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA) tracking is going away by early spring this year. But there is much uncertainty left among the mobile ecosystem of what comes in a post IDFA world. February 16, 2021, Facebook started imposing ad limits per page based on the highest amount of money advertisers spent in any month in 2020. This means your page may run as few as 250 ads or as many as 20,000 ads, depending on your spend last year.

No one knows exactly the level of impact to expect from the loss of IDFA. But, the fact remains that app publishers will need to diversify their campaign traffic across the mobile advertising network. This will mitigate the risk from any one network that may have weaker audience targeting.

This will mean that advertisers will diversify risk by spreading their resources across many more platforms than ever before. Including budget and creatives to campaign management and tracking resources. Advertisers will need to be more efficient to survive and thrive in a post-IDFA world.

It is an opportunity for app publishers to hone creative concepting, testing, and development skills. Then, efficiently take their winning creative across the network to outperform competitors.

Here is how to embrace the change in a post IDFA world, and prepare your creative strategy for the challenges ahead:

Mobile Ad Strategy in the Post IDFA World

Double-digit growth from any one channel is over. Whether or not it is Facebook, TikTok, Snap, Google, or the SDK ad networks. So, app publishers will have to diversify their campaign strategy across a multitude of platforms and marketplaces, period.

This expansion of ad channels may also put pressure on app development as well. Firebase is a backend service that provides developers with a variety of tools and services. It helps them develop quality apps, grow their user base through advertising, and earn a profit. It is also built on Google’s infrastructure but works for both iOS and Android apps. When Firebase is linked to advertising channels, it can help support tracking the target return on advertising spend (tROAS). This will be critical in the new post IDFA world of advertising.

The need to diversify is also being felt in more traditional media channels as well. As a result, over-the-top media services (OTT) are the belle of the ball right now. They bypass cable, broadcast, and satellite television gatekeeper platforms to instead stream media via the Internet directly to viewers. As advertisers need more effective ways to bring their campaigns to consumers across networks, technology like OTT is helping make this happen.

The Power of One Winning Creative 

What does it mean to have a ‘winning’ creative? What is the value, and what can you do with it?

A ‘winning’ creative is an ad that outperforms all others when tested in the market. It’s truly a rare find, and the most impactful on your ad spend ROI.

We test a lot of creative. In fact, we produce and test more than 100,000 videos and images yearly for our clients. In addition, we have performed over 10,000 A|B and multivariate tests on Facebook and Google. After managing more than $3 billion in paid ad spend for our clients, we discovered that between 85-95% of all ads tested fail. So, only about one in 20 ad creatives is good enough to beat the current winning creative. And, that one winning creative is what is going to be used to convert and acquire customers cost-effectively.

When you need to keep feeding an increasing number of networks with effective, winning creative, it may seem like an overwhelming task. But we’ve developed our own approach to testing and producing winning concepts.

Here is how you can leverage our approach:

Creative Testing: Our Unique Way

When we test, our goal is to compare new concepts versus the winning video (control) to see if the challenger can outperform the champion. Why? If you cannot outperform the best ad in a portfolio, you will lose money running the second- or third-place ads.

Our testing process is designed to save both time and money by killing losing creatives quickly and to significantly reduce non-converting spend. Our process will generate both false negatives and false positives. We typically allow our tests to run between 2-7 days to provide enough time to gather data without requiring the capital and time required to reach statistical significance. And we always run our tests using our software, AdRules.

Statistical Significance vs Cost-Effectiveness

Let us take a closer look at the cost aspect of creative testing. In classic testing, you need a 95% confidence rate to declare a winner, exit the learning phase, and reach statistical significance. That is nice to have but getting a 95% confidence rate for in-app purchases may end up costing you $20,000 per creative variation.

Here is an example scenario: To reach a 95% confidence level, you will need about 100 purchases. With a 1% purchase rate (which is typical for gaming apps) and a $200 cost per purchase, you will end up spending $20,000 for each variation to accrue enough data for that 95% confidence rate. There are not a lot of advertisers who can afford to spend $20,000 per variation. Especially, if 95% of new creative fails to beat the control. In this example, with a cost of $20,000 per variation and a 95% failure rate, it would cost $400,000 just to find a new control. That is because we would have to test 20 variations to find the winner, and – as mentioned earlier – testing each variation costs about $20,000.

So, what should you do?

To avoid such high testing costs, we move the conversion event we are targeting up, or towards the beginning of the sales funnel. For mobile apps, instead of optimizing for purchases, we optimize for impressions per install (IPM). For websites, we would optimize for an impression to top-funnel conversion rate. This is our own methodology, designed to allow advertisers to find new, top-performing creative in the most cost-efficient and reliable way.

IPM Testing is Cost-Effective

A concern with our process is that ads with high CTRs and high conversion rates for top-funnel events may not be true winners for down-funnel conversions and ROI / ROAS. But while there is a risk of identifying false positives and negatives with this method, we would rather take that risk than spend the time and expense of optimizing for statistically significant bottom-funnel metrics.

To us, it is more efficient to optimize for IPMs vs. purchases. Most importantly, it means you can run tests for less money per variation because you are optimizing towards installs vs purchases. For many advertisers, that alone can make more testing financially viable. $200 testing cost per variation versus $20,000 testing cost per variation can mean the difference between being able to do a couple of tests versus having an ongoing, robust testing program.

So, the key takeaway for you here is to approach your creative testing process thoughtfully. Leverage as much of our recommended approach as you like and let us know if you have questions.  Check out our latest creative testing whitepaper for more information.

Our 3-Step Creative Testing Process for IAP (In-App-Purchases)

Our 3-Step Creative Testing Process for IAA (In-App-Advertising)

Facebook Ad Account Restrictions Have Begun Rolling Out

In the past, you personalize ads by creating a high volume of creative and hoping the ‘winning’ one would be seen by your target audience. But with the ability to now creative dynamic formats and ad creative, personalization is done through machine learning-driven products and with optimal results.

The volume of active ads from your page correlates with the time needed for ad performance optimization. As a result, larger accounts may cause content to be stuck in the ‘learning phase’ for too long. Facebook claims that four in 10 ads fail to exit the learning phase in high-volume accounts. So, with a reduction in ad volume, you can expedite optimal ad performance.

The ad volume limit is based on the highest amount you spent in any month in 2020. Starting February 16, 2021, you will fall into one of the four groups listed below.  Please see Facebook’s native tools for the date when your account(s) will transition to ad limits.

Best Practices to Maximize Creative Distribution and Minimize Production Work

• To maximize distribution across platforms while minimizing creative production, we recommend producing the following sizes of videos and images (in green).

Post IDFA Facebook Campaign/Account Structure Recommendations

• Suggestions for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Purchase (IAP) apps and ideas for how it will evolve when lookalike audience performance erodes.

• Recommendations for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Purchase (IAP) apps when lookalike audience performance erodes.

• Suggestions for how to set up iOS14 accounts for In-App Purchase (IAP) apps once your lookalikes have eroded and you have tried the above. Please note, these recommendations are not in order of priority and should be evaluated based on your app/audience and optimization techniques.

• Recommendations for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Ads (IAA) apps, and ideas for how it will evolve when lookalike audience performance erodes.

• Suggestions for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Ads (IAA) apps when lookalike audience performance erodes.

How We Can Help You Win Creatively in the Post IDFA World

Now is the time to focus on your creative strategy and prepare for the IDFA changes. We have also developed a library of guides to help you along the way. Each content piece details the best practices to drive creative concepting and development, auditing, and testing at scale. Check out our papers here:

• IDFA Armageddon Part 3
• The Definitive Guide to TikTok Ads 2021
• Facebook Creative Testing: Why Is The Control Video So Hard To Beat
• The Definitive Guide To Creative Trends For Mobile Game Advertisers in Summer 2020

Please reach out to sales@consumeracquisition.com if we can help with fresh creative or media buying on Facebook, Google, TikTok, Snap, and Apple Search Ads.

The wait is over — Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, stated the ATT prompt will be mandatory with the next release of iOS14 and thus remove the IDFA in March or “early spring”.  This morning 2/2, we heard from multiple sources that Apple’s new Beta candidate is out, and ATT is off by default… so, it is really happening!   The goal of this article is to share highlights from my conversations with industry leaders and make some suggestions to help you prepare to navigate the POST IDFA world and future-proof your mobile app ad accounts. While this is a massive industry change, full of uncertainty, the good news is that we are all in the boat together.

Impact of Losing IDFA

Over the last seven months, I have spoken to many CEOs, user acquisition, and growth leaders across the mobile app ecosystem. I gathered their perspectives on the impact of losing IDFA on their business and the mobile app/mobile web industries. Their opinions were highly varied. And what is clear, is that no one knows for sure what will happen to their business with the IDFA removed. What is universally accepted is that the financial impact will not be isolated to a titan battle between Facebook and Apple. But it will cause uncertainty and financial stress across the mobile app and mobile web industries during a pandemic and at a time of record unemployment.

Account Restrictions of Apple’s SKAN

The account restrictions of Apple’s SKAN will cause a significant reduction in mobile app and mobile web company’s ability to profitably advertise – with certainty. However, it appears not all market segments or companies will be impacted the same. For example, companies running an eCommerce mobile app using a single agency of record will be less impacted than a game and mobile app advertiser that runs an internal UA team with one or more agencies. SKAN’s negative impact will be driven by both a loss of deterministic measurement and the need to limit the ad account structure to 1 account per app with 9 campaigns and 5 ad sets per campaign.  The requirement of a single account restriction will force companies to decide to either keep the iOS 14 account internal or to allow a partner/agency to drive that one account. Obviously, no changes to Android are currently forecast.

Last week, Facebook and Google rolled out recommendations on how to prepare for ATT/IDFA loss. I have summarized my thoughts and recommendations for how to survive and thrive through these highly uncertain times. Also, how to best leverage the expertise of agencies, which will have a broad view into the rapidly evolving impact of IDFA’s rollout to mitigate risk. Please start your review by reading Apple’s SKAdNetwork article.

Implementation of iOS14 and ATT

The implementation of iOS14 and ATT will cause fluctuations in CMPs, reporting efficiency, audience, deterministic LTV models, and traffic quality. But we are uncertain how quickly things will change. Facebook’s testing has revealed more than a 50% drop in Audience Network revenue which may impact apps that make money via ads. Will CPMs drop as impacted companies and segments pull out of the market?  We believe spending should slow for those more impacted. Such as, remarketing, hyper-casual / IAA monetized apps, and whale hunters (mid-core/hard-core/social casino). But will other companies step in to keep CPMs high (branding, CPG, etc.)?

It is highly unlikely that the bottom will drop out of any platform, Facebook, TikTok, Snap, or SDK Networks (Unity, Applovin, Vungle, IronSource). However, it is more likely that erosion will occur over 2-4 months as the efficiency of lookalike audiences drop and deterministic LTV models get replaced with less efficient probabilistic solutions.

Recommendations on How to Prepare:

Please review this Facebook post on Actions to Ads for Ads Ecosystem Changes. 

For advertisers that optimize, target, and/or measure using web events here is how Apple’s user prompt impacts information sharing:

For advertisers that optimize, target, and/or measure using app events here is how Apple’s user prompt impacts information sharing:

Key actions Mobile App Advertisers need to take before Apple’s IDFA removal in “early spring”.

• Do It Now: Review Facebook’s developer blog post as a great starting point.
• Do It Now: Upgrade to Facebook’s SDK version 8.1 or later, assuming you are using their SDK for advertising.
• Get Ready: Configure App Events Optimization, Mobile App Install, and Events with AAA and Value campaigns.
• Be Ready: Advertisers using Facebook SDK & App Events API, get prepared to use “Advertiser Tracking Enabled” to tell Facebook to restrict data use on a per-event basis.
• Get Ready: If you are using App Events API, plan to integrate SKAN API using Event manager. See instructions in Facebook’s native tools.
• Be Ready: Create several ad accounts (1) Android, (2) iOS < 14, and (3) iOS14 and later. The iOS14 account must strictly adhere to the following account requirements. Including, 1 account, 9 campaigns per app, and 5 ad sets per campaign of the same optimization type. See below for some of our recommendations.

Suggestions for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Purchase (IAP) apps and ideas for how it will evolve when lookalike audience performance erodes.

Recommendations for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Purchase (IAP) apps when lookalike audience performance erodes.

Suggestions for how to set up iOS14 accounts for In-App Purchase (IAP) apps once your lookalikes have eroded and you have tried the above. Please note, these recommendations are not in order of priority. They should be evaluated based on your app/audience and optimization techniques.

Suggestions for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Ads (IAA) apps and ideas for how it will evolve when lookalike audience performance erodes.

Recommendations for how to set up your iOS14 Account for In-App Ads (IAA) apps when lookalike audience performance erodes.

Key actions Web Advertisers need to take before Apple’s IDFA removal “early spring”. (Cont.)

• Do It Now: Verify your domain in Facebook Business Manager, see their developer blog post for more information.
• Get Ready: Prepare to operate and define the priority of each of 8 total events per domain. Note this may be a significant change for some companies and require experimentation.
• Be Ready: Evaluate and experiment with attribution windows. Note the potential loss of view-through attribution and required short windows of 24-48 hours.
• Get Ready: Experiment with campaign optimization strategies, bidding, audiences, etc.

Facebook’s AAA API

If you develop proprietary AdTech using the Facebook API, we also recommend that you implement Facebook’s AAA API that was just released on February 1, 2021. Facebook has expanded the access of Automated App Ads to the Marketing Ads API.

Automated App Ads API is a new way to run an app install ad on Facebook. This helps app marketers of all sizes achieve better performance, greater scale, and more efficiency.

Automated App Ads leverages powerful machine learning to automatically optimize your campaigns across creative, audience, and optimization. They also deliver more high-value conversions with less effort.

The product is designed to improve your experience with app marketing in three areas:

• Better performance with AI-powered targeting and improved delivery models.
• Sustain performance when increasing budgets with machine learning that automatically tests creative combinations to deliver the highest performing ads.
• Faster and more efficient campaign management with a streamlined campaign creation flow that reduces the need for manual adjustments.

Please see their developer documentation for more details on the API.

Check out our other articles related to IDFA removal:

• IDFA Armageddon Part I
• IDFA Armageddon Part II
• iOS14 & IDFA Loss

External Articles we recommend:

• Preparing our Partners for iOS 14: Impacts to App Advertisers and Developers
• App Tracking Transparency Codex: the ultimate guide to ATT, IDFA deprecation, and SKAdNetwork
• Tim Cook to speak at EU data conference at Apple-hosted advertising session
• Facebook Login Updates: A New Limited Data Mode
• Apple privileges its own ad network with ATT. What is its privacy endgame?

Facebook’s latest updates to prepare partners for iOS 14:

• Preparing our partners for iOS 14: Mobile Web Advertising [December 16, 2020]
• Facebook’s Previous Updates to Prepare Partners for iOS 14:
  • Preparing for Apple’s App Store Data Disclosure Requirements [October 22, 2020]
  • Preparing our Partners for iOS 14 [Updated September 10, 2020]
• Download the new IDFA Armageddon Part 3 White Paper today!

Please reach out to sales@ConsumerAcquisition.com if we can help with IDFA strategy, creative or media buying on Facebook, Google, TikTok, Snap, and Apple Search Ads.